Richard GonzalezRichard Gonzalez

Center Director, Research Center for Group Dynamics, Institute for Social Research
Director, BioSocial Methods Collaborative, RCGD
Amos N Tversky Collegiate Professor, Psychology and Statistics, LSA
Professor of Marketing, Stephen M Ross School of Business
Professor of Integrative Systems and Design, College of Engineering


E-mail: Email Richard Gonzalez
Address: Research Center for Group Dynamics
Institute for Social Research
University of Michigan
426 Thompson Street
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106
Phone: 734-647-6785

Extending our approach of choosing the next query in decision making studies: Testing probability weighting functions

Feb 18, 2014 | Decision Making, Psychology, Statistics/Methods

Cavagnaro, D., Pitt, M., Gonzalez, R., \& Myung, J. (2013). Discriminating among probability weighting functions using adaptive design optimization. {\it Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 47,} 255-289. 10.1007/s11166-013-9179-3  PDF


Probability weighting functions relate objective probabilities and their subjective weights, and play a central role in modeling choices under risk within cumulative prospect theory. While several different parametric forms have been pro- posed, their qualitative similarities make it challenging to discriminate among them empirically. In this paper, we use both simulation and choice experiments to inves- tigate the extent to which different parametric forms of the probability weighting function can be discriminated using adaptive design optimization, a computer-based methodology that identifies and exploits model differences for the purpose of model discrimination. The simulation experiments show that the correct (data-generating) form can be conclusively discriminated from its competitors. The results of an empir- ical experiment reveal heterogeneity between participants in terms of the functional form, with two models (Prelec-2, Linear-in-Log-Odds) emerging as the most com- mon best-fitting models. The findings shed light on assumptions underlying these models.