Richard Gonzalez
Center Director, Research Center for Group Dynamics, Institute for Social Research
Director, BioSocial Methods Collaborative, RCGD
Amos N Tversky Collegiate Professor, Psychology and Statistics, LSA
Professor of Marketing, Stephen M Ross School of Business
Professor of Integrative Systems and Design, College of Engineering
| E-mail: | Email Richard Gonzalez |
| Address: | Research Center for Group Dynamics Institute for Social Research University of Michigan 426 Thompson Street Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 |
| Phone: | 734-647-6785 |
A historical review of the judgment heuristics literature
This is a new chapter, which just came out in the new edition of the Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning (2012), that merges viewpoints from a couple of previous chapters we’ve written.
Griffin, D., Gonzalez, R., Koehler, D., \& Gilovich, T. (2012). Judgmental heuristics: A historical overview. In K. Holyoak and R. Morrison, Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning, K. Holyoak and R. Morrison, Eds. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 322-345. PDF
Abstract
The Heuristics and Biases approach to judgment under uncertainty began 40 years ago with the publication of a study of the statistical foibles on the part of research psychologists and statisticians (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971 ). Since then, this research program has substantially influenced the working assumptions of psychologists and economists about the role of normative models of probability judgment and decision making, while providing a new language of judgmental heuristics. We provide a historical overview of the Heuristics and Biases research program that describes its intellectual antecedents and the special role of the rational actor model in shaping its methods, and we review the program’s evolution over the course of three waves of research and theory development.
