Richard Gonzalez
Center Director, Research Center for Group Dynamics, Institute for Social Research
Co-Director, BioSocial Methods Collaborative
Amos N Tversky Collegiate Professor, Psychology and Statistics, LSA
Professor of Integrative Systems and Design, College of Engineering
| E-mail: | Email Richard Gonzalez |
| Address: | Research Center for Group Dynamics Institute for Social Research University of Michigan 426 Thompson Street Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 |
| Phone: | 734-647-6785 |
Decision Making
Testing prospect theory’s predictive accuracy
We test original and cumulative prospect theories for their ability to predict out-of-sample cash equivalences of three outcome gambles when estimated (trained) on two outcome gambles. The results are surprising in that both theories are systematically off but in different ways suggesting opportunity for additional theory development.
When emotions are both positive and negative
We propose a new measure for assessing mixed emotions over daily activities in older adults. The Activity Affective Complexity score is demonstrated in a subsample of older adults from the Health and Retirement Survey.
Brain differences in how obsessive-compulsive patients process uncertainty compared to controls
Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is associated with pathological uncertainty regarding whether an action has been performed correctly or whether a bad outcome will occur, leading to compulsive ‘‘evidence gathering’’ behaviors aimed at reducing uncertainty. The current study used…
Extending our approach of choosing the next query in decision making studies: Testing probability weighting functions
Probability weighting functions relate objective probabilities and their subjective weights, and play a central role in modeling choices under risk within cumulative prospect theory. While several different parametric forms have been proposed, their qualitative similarities make it challenging to…
Does having a companion present when consulting an oncologist help the cancer patient process information better?
Most patients have companions present during oncology visits; we investigated whether companions process information more accurately than patients.
Exploiting a well-known bias to infer some detailed properties of how we distort probabilities
We make use of a series of choice questions based on the common consequence setup, much like the classic Allais problem, to show that we can infer concavity and convexity properties of how we distort probabilities in decision.
Using computer adaptive methods to select the next query in a decision making study
We extend the adaptive design optimization (ADO) approach to decision making under risk. ADO is a Bayesian method that adapts the experimental design in real time; it chooses the next question that can maximally discriminate the predictions of competing theories.
When words speak louder than actions
The behavior of others serves an important cue in our decision making, but we show cases where sometimes we are more influenced by an individual’s evaluation than their actions, suggesting that at times words can speak louder than actions.
Reviewing the endowment-contrast model of happiness and well-being
If we have an amazing experience, such as an excellent meal or a the dream vacation, when does it become part of our endowment (i.e., another positive tick mark that we accumulate)or a source of comparison against which other relevant experiences are judged and contrasted? In the former case, the experience makes us happier, but in the latter case it can diminish our ability to enjoy future events.
Extending prospect theory to cases where probabilities are not known
We extend cumulative prospect theory to the domain of events, investigate two sources on nonlinearity on decision weights, and propose a two stage model of choice.
